Risk-Aware Market Clearing for Power Systems (RAMC)

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Program:
PERFORM
Award:
$3,250,000
Location:
Atlanta,
Georgia
Status:
ACTIVE
Project Term:
07/10/2020 - 07/09/2023

Critical Need:

The grid relies on conventional bulk power plants to provide the flexibility to operate power systems reliably. These assets can guarantee available capacity except in rare events. The existing risk management strategy protects against those rare events and aligns well with conventional technologies. New risk management strategies are needed due to the shift in grid resources: intermittent renewable resources, distributed energy resources, and storage technologies. Management systems must be able to leverage all capabilities of these new technologies to maintain an economical and reliable grid. PERFORM projects aim to address that need by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at the asset and system levels for the grid.

Project Innovation + Advantages:

The increasing use of renewable energy resources challenges grid operations, which have traditionally relied on highly predictable load and generation. Future grid operators must balance generation costs and system-level risk, shifting from deterministic to stochastic optimization and risk management. Georgia Tech’s Risk-Aware Market Clearing (RAMC) project will provide a blueprint for an end-to-end, data-driven approach where risk is explicitly modeled, quantified, and optimized, striking a tradeoff between cost and system-level risk minimization. The RAMC project focuses on challenges arising from increased stochasticity in generation, load, flow interchanges with adjacent markets, and extreme weather. RAMC addresses these challenges through innovations in machine learning, sampling, and optimization. RAMC quantifies the risk of individual assets from historical data and learns the correlations among assets. It quantifies the system-level risk and learns fast and accurate approximations of multi-stage stochastic optimization algorithms for the day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment, the day-ahead forward reliability assessment commitment, the look-ahead commitment, and the real-time security constrained economic dispatch. RAMC performs real-world, multi-year validations of the proposed approach to balance cost and risk.

Potential Impact:

PERFORM projects will design methods and risk scores to clearly communicate the physical delivery risk of an energy asset’s offer and design grid management systems that organically capture uncertainty. These management systems will evaluate and hedge the system risk position to meet or exceed a baseline system risk index. This pursuit will achieve the following area impacts:

Security:

Optimal utilization of renewable and clean resources for all grid services improves grid reliability, reduces energy imports, and provides a sustainable path to energy independence.

Environment:

When low- or zero-emission assets provide all grid products and services, grid operations are no longer reliant on legacy, carbon-heavy centralized generation assets, which enables the grid to absorb more clean resources.

Economy:

Innovation in grid management will reduce consumer costs, increase the value of emerging technologies, and help achieve a clean and sustainable electric power sector. Merging risk techniques in power systems with those from finance and actuarial science enables further economic growth and redefines the role of electric power sector entities.

Contact

ARPA-E Program Director:
Dr. Joseph King
Project Contact:
Prof. Pascal Van Hentenryck
Press and General Inquiries Email:
ARPA-E-Comms@hq.doe.gov
Project Contact Email:
pascal.vanhentenryck@isye.gatech.edu

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Release Date:
02/07/2020