Predicting Events to Enable Robust Renewable Grids

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Reading, Massachusetts
Project Term:
09/11/2020 - 06/10/2023

Technology Description:

Castalune will develop a software system that identifies and monitors complex leading indicators of key grid events associated with individual assets and regional grids, such as price volatility events, curtailment, and reliability failure. The team will produce new risk metrics and evaluation methodologies that inform generator dispatch within electric grids subject to increasingly dynamic underlying drivers of demand (e.g., electric vehicles, on-site generation, or storage) and supply (e.g., weather-driven renewable generation, storage). The project will garner early-stage engagement from industry leaders such as utilities and renewable energy operators that are facing challenges in managing highly dynamic grids. The results will enable grid planners and operators to transition away from conventional generation sources towards renewable energy and storage sources while maintaining grid reliability.

Potential Impact:

PERFORM projects will design methods and risk scores to clearly communicate the physical delivery risk of an energy asset’s offer and design grid management systems that organically capture uncertainty. These management systems will evaluate and hedge the system risk position to meet or exceed a baseline system risk index. This pursuit will achieve the following area impacts:


Optimal utilization of renewable and clean resources for all grid services improves grid reliability, reduces energy imports, and provides a sustainable path to energy independence.


When low- or zero-emission assets provide all grid products and services, grid operations are no longer reliant on legacy, carbon-heavy centralized generation assets, which enables the grid to absorb more clean resources.


Innovation in grid management will reduce consumer costs, increase the value of emerging technologies, and help achieve a clean and sustainable electric power sector. Merging risk techniques in power systems with those from finance and actuarial science enables further economic growth and redefines the role of electric power sector entities.


ARPA-E Program Director:
Dr. Jonathan Glass
Project Contact:
Mr. Rob Miller
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